22 June 2015

The latest global temperature data are breaking records

Road markings appear distorted as the asphalt starts to melt due to the high temperature in New Delhi, India, 27 May 2015. Photograph: Harish Tyagi/EPA

John Abraham Monday 15 June 2015
Source: The Guardian

Today’s global temperature data keep 2015 as hottest year to date

Just today, NASA released its global temperature data for the month of May 2015. It was a scorching 0.71°C (1.3°F) above the long-term average. It is also the hottest first five months of any year ever recorded. As we look at climate patterns over the next year or so, it is likely that this year will set a new all-time record. In fact, as of now, 2015 is a whopping 0.1°C (0.17°F) hotter than last year, which itself was the hottest year on record.

Below, NASA’s annual temperatures are shown. Each year’s results are shown as black dots. Some years are warmer, some are cooler and we never want to put too much emphasis on any single year’s temperature. I have added a star to show where 2015 is so far this year, simply off the chart. The last 12 months are at record levels as well. So far June has been very hot as well, likely to end up warmer than May.

Global surface temperature estimates from NASA GISS.

So why talk about month temperatures or even annual temperatures? Isn’t climate about long-term trends?

First, there has been a lot of discussion of the so-called ‘pause.’ As I have pointed out many times here and in my own research, there has been no pause at all. We know this first by looking at the rate of energy gain within the oceans. But other recent publications, like ones I’ve written about have taken account of instrument and measurement quality and they too find no pause.

Second, there has been a lot of discussion of why models were running hotter than surface air temperatures. There was a real divergence for a while with most models suggesting more warming. Well with 2014 and 2015, we see that the models and actual surface temperatures are in very close agreement.

When we combine surface temperatures with ocean heat content, as seen below, a clear picture emerges. Warming is continuing at a rapid rate.

Global ocean heat content estimates from NOAA.

There is an emerging view that the so-called surface warming slowdown was caused from poor instrument coverage around the globe, volcanic eruptions, and a multi-year oscillation in the oceans. The issue of instrument coverage is being fixed as we speak.

But, any short term fluctuations can only temporarily influence the long term trend. In the ocean heat content image above, you might notice a slight change in the trend around 2005. The trend change has since disappeared; it was associated with the ocean oscillations I mentioned earlier.

The recent warming skyrocket has put the contrarians in a bad position. In 2013, when contrarian Christopher Monckton repeated a claim that temperatures might decrease by 0.5°C in two years, I challenged him to a $1000 bet. He never took that bet, but we can see he would have lost handily if he had.

More recently, contrarian Judith Curry was reported as warning about decades of cooling (or perhaps lack of warming) stretching out to the 2030s. We see that this prediction is not looking very likely. Other contrarians have made similar predictions and it makes one wonder how much evidence will have to pile up before they climb down.

Just a few months ago, Roy Spencer (another climate contrarian) claimed, “We are probably past the point of reaching a new peak temperature anomaly from the current El Niño, suggesting it was rather weak.” While it remains to be seen whether or not he is correct, his own data have shown an uptick in temperatures, and the most recent months have continued the very warm trend. Barring something really unusual, the trend will continue until the end of this year.

I asked climate expert Dr. Joe Romm, Founding Editor of Climate Progress for his thoughts. He reminds us,

Historically, the global temperature trend-line is more like a staircase than a ramp. It now appears we are headed for a step-jump in global temperatures that scientists have been expecting.

Let’s hope his prediction is wrong, but let’s plan for it to be correct.

14 May 2015

Climate Change: Global Threat to Dolphins

By PATRICK MAYOYO editor@africaeconews.com

Dolphins world over are under threat from effects of climate change, and the Kenyan coast is no exception.

The studies show that among the impacts of climate change are increases in sea surface temperature and the sea level, decreases in sea ice cover and changes in salinity, alkalinity, wave climate, ocean circulation, and primary productivity.

Dolphins enjoying themselves in their habitat. PHOTO: Watamu Marine Association.

According to, Mr Randall S. Wells of the Chicago Zoological Society, the concept of global climate change means that there will be ramifications for life throughout the world from changes associated with global warming.

“Exactly when these environmental changes may become detectable in different habitats outside of polar regions, how severe they will become, and how the marine mammals will respond to them is unknown,” Mr Wells says.

One of the better-known non-polar cetacean species, distributed widely through temperate-tropical coastal waters, is the common bottlenose dolphin (tursiops truncates).

Three options

It is among dolphins found along the Kenyan coast. Others are the Indo-Pacific humpback, stripped and spinner dolphins.

Mr Wells, who is also the president of the Society for Marine Mammalogy, says that bottlenose dolphins impacted by climate change face three basic options for responses.

“They may be able to redistribute as conditions change, meaning that they can follow or avoid changes to remain within an acceptable range of temperatures or other environmental parameters,” he notes.

Writing for ‘The Whalewatcher,’ a journal of the American Cetacean Society, Mr Wells adds that alternatively, the dolphins may remain within their historical ranges and adapt to the changing conditions, within the physiological, ecological, and behavioral limitations of the species or population.

The third option is to go extinct.

Other studies show that dolphins along the Kenyan coast and in Africa in general are under threat from unsustainable fishing, expanding tourism and habitat destruction.

According to the Worldwide Fund for Nature (WWF), other threats to dolphins in Kenya and Africa include illegal killing and the growing risks of offshore oil and gas exploration.

The waters off Kenya’s north and south coast harbour several species of small cetaceans, among them dolphins.

Dolphins are cetacean mammals closely related to whales and porpoises. There are almost 40 species of dolphin in 17 genera. They vary in size from 1.2 metres up to 9.5 metres (30 ft) and 10 tonnes for the orca, or the killer whale.

Dolphins are found worldwide, mostly in the shallower seas of the continental shelves and are carnivores, eating mostly fish and squid.

According to, Mr Steve Trott, the projects development manager of Watamu Marine Association, the major threats facing dolphins along the Kenyan coast are human related.

“Death by drowning is one of the main problems as all marine mammals are susceptible to being caught in fishing nets, accidentally or deliberately as bycatch,” he says.

He adds that abandoned nets classified as marine debris also trap dolphins and whales. “Similarly, marine rubbish (especially plastics) can cause death if ingested by marine mammals.”

Use of air guns

Mr Trott says oil and gas exploration can cause damage to dolphin and whale hearing, especially the use of air guns during seismic surveys.

“Dolphins become so disorientated that they beach themselves on land,” he says.

Currently, Camac Energy Ltd based in the USA has leased oil and gas block L 16 which includes the Malindi-Watamu National Marine Parks and Reserves and they plan such surveys at a time yet to be disclosed.

“This development is of great concern to not only conservationists but also local boat operators and safari sellers who rely on dolphin and whale watching for an income,” he said.

Tourists and tour guides prepare for an expedition to view dolphins in Watamu marine park and reserve.

Mr Trott says research organisations, conservation groups, and government agencies have formed a national coalition called the Kenya Marine Mammal Network (KMMN) to protect dolphins.

“This was formed by Global Vision International – Shimoni Kenya, and Watamu Marine Association. Partners include Kenya Wildlife Service, Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute, NEMA, WWF Kiunga and Kenya Sea Anglers Association (KASA), with the purpose to discover more about dolphins, whales and dugongs in Kenya,” he adds.

Mr Trott says the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute has launched a project to research on the number of dolphins being illegally killed for meat or those that die due to unsustainable fishing practices.

“The ‘BYCAM’ research project supported by West Indian Ocean (WIO) is researching the effects of bycatch in Kenya, Zanzibar, Tanzania, Mozambique and Madagascar,” he says.

He says going into 2017, this will be the first study of its kind and is expected to provide essential information for reducing dolphin and whale bycatch.

“It has been established that the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin numbers have declined seriously through bycatch and they are classed as near threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List,” he said.

Increase awareness

He says little is known about dolphins along the Kenyan coast and the aim of the ongoing research was not only to collect more information about numbers and hot spots along the coast, but also to increase awareness.

According to WWF, dolphins along the West Africa coast are also under threat.

The waters off West Africa are home to several dolphin species, including the endemic Atlantic humpback and a largely isolated population of long-beaked common dolphins.

WWF says these dolphins, however, are facing increasing pressure from unsustainable fisheries, habitat destruction, illegal killing, expanding tourism, and the growing risks of offshore oil and gas exploration.

WWF is working with West African countries to promote effective conservation measures to protect the endangered dolphin species.

This includes a comprehensive assessment report on the status, distribution, key habitats and threats facing the dolphins, which will contribute to coordinating local and regional action plans.

Studies show that average global land and sea temperatures have risen about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit since record keeping began in 1880 and continue to rise.

A dolphin jumps near a tourists’ boat during a tour at Watamu marine park and reserve. PHOTO: Watamu Marine Association.

Globally, 2014 was the hottest year on record. And the 16 hottest years ever recorded have all occurred since 1997.

Most scientists believe global sea level will rise by as much as another two feet by the end of this century, and very possibly more.

The executive director of American Cetacean Society, Dr Cheryl McCormick, says climate change is one of the most significant yet least understood threats to cetaceans today.

Dr McCormick says scientists do not dispute the fact that climate change is happening, and at a pace beyond some species’ ability to evolve and adapt.

“Some of our most iconic species in the Arctic and Antarctic regions of the world, such as the beluga, narwhale, bowhead, and Antarctic minke whales, are among the most vulnerable, in part due to changes in sea ice cover,” the director adds.

Adapt and evolve

Dr McCormick notes that less ice makes it more difficult for cetaceans to locate prey, allows access by humans to previously inaccessible habitats, increases interactions among competitors, predators, and disease vectors, and exposes highly social and vulnerable species to human activity, such as ship strikes, entanglement in fishing gear, and hunting.

Mobile cetacean species whose habitat needs are more generalist in nature will likely have a greater ability to adapt and evolve to ever-changing climate conditions than their brethren living in polar regions.

Mr Trott said so far Kenya’s success in the conservation of dolphins is the establishment of the KMMN and increased awareness of dolphins and whales along the Kenyan coast.

“It is clear that Kenya needs to develop a National Marine Mammal Conservation Strategy and, with increased collaboration and extension of the KMMN, this is achievable,” he said.

Source: Africa Eco News

26 January 2015

The Oceans Are Warming So Fast…

… They Keep Breaking Scientists’ Charts
By John Abraham, Guardian UK
24 January 15

Wow, was this a bad year for those who deny the reality and the significance of human-induced climate change. Of course, there were the recent flurry of reports that 2014 surface temperatures had hit their hottest values ever recorded. The 2014 record was first called on this blog in December and the final results were reported as well, here. All of this happened in a year that the denialists told us would not be very hot.

But those denialists are having a tough time now as they look around the planet for ANY evidence that climate change is not happening. The problem is, they’ve been striking out.

And just recently, perhaps the most important bit of information came out about 2014 – how much the Earth actually warmed. What we find is that the warming is so great, NOAA literally has to remake its graphs. Let me explain this a bit.

NOAA once again has to rescale its ocean heat chart to capture 2014 ocean warming (photo: The Guardian)

We tend to focus on the global temperature average which is the average of air temperatures near the ground (or at the sea surface). This past year, global air temperatures were record-breaking. But that isn’t the same as global warming. Global warming is properly viewed as the amount of heat contained within the Earth’s energy system. So, air temperatures may go up and down on any given year as energy moves to or from the air (primarily from the ocean). What we really want to know is, did the Earth’s energy go up or down?

The trick to answering this question is to measure the change in energy of the oceans. A thorough review of ocean heat measurement methods is found here; we paid the requisite fee to make the paper open access. Anyone can download and read it.

So what do the new data show? Well, it turns out that the energy stored within the ocean (which is 90% or more of the total “global warming” heat), increased significantly. A plot from NOAA is shown above. You can see that the last data point (the red curve), is, literally off the chart.

The folks at NOAA do a great job updating this graph every three months or so. We can now say that the 2014 Earth had more heat (thermal energy) than any year ever recorded by humans. We can also say that the folks at NOAA will likely have to rescale their graph to capture the new numbers. The NOAA site is updated by Dr. Tim Boyer and can be found here. Click on slide 2 to view the relevant image.

If people want to read a review of ocean heating that is written for a general audience, I suggest our recent peer-reviewed paper which can be found here.

So when we look back on 2014 and the records that fell, it gives us some pause about the so-called pause (hat-tip to Dr. Greg Laden for that phrase). Some people tried to tell us global warming had “paused”, that it ended in 1998, or that the past 15 years or so had not seen a change in the energy of the Earth. This ocean warming data is the clearest nail in that coffin. There never was a pause to global warming, there never was a halt, and the folks that tried to tell you there was were, well, I’ll let you decide. For me, the facts speak for themselves.

Source: Reader Supported News

1 April 2014

The Costs of Carbon Pollution Are Clear

By Al Gore, Reader Supported News 31 March 14

The new report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — the world’s preeminent group of climate scientists — represents even more definitive evidence of the growing urgency to immediately reduce the spewing of global warming pollution. The atmosphere can no longer be used as an open sewer. The costs of carbon pollution are clear: decreasing crop yields, more destructive storms, the spreading of tropical diseases to temperate latitudes, rising seas, more climate refugees, failures of governance, increasing floods, deepening droughts, more destructive fires and heat waves — all contributing to the new reality of the global climate crisis. Put together, these factors are already affecting the lives of millions around the world by driving them from their homes, disrupting their livelihoods, and in some cases, further straining destabilized regions.

The consensus is clear. We need an immediate and determined shift to a clean, renewable economy. The continued mass burning of fossil fuels is inconsistent with a healthy, prosperous future for our civilization.

Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.

31 March 2014

Report: Climate Change Already Impacting ‘All Continents’

By Jeff Spross, ThinkProgress 30 March 14

The next big report from an ongoing international effort to nail down the science of climate change will be released on Monday. According to the Guardian, the report’s language concludes that climate change has already “caused impacts on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans.”

An early draft was actually leaked in November. The biggest danger it sees is apparently coastal flooding driven by sea level rise — which could shave 10 percent off global economic production by the end of this century, according to previous research. Climate change also threatens widespread damage to marine life and fish populations worldwide, as both warming seas and ocean acidification throw off ecosystems’ natural balances.

Much of the report’s language has already been finalized, including a warning that “both warm water coral reef and Arctic ecosystems are already experiencing irreversible regime shifts.”

The report also sees the potential for droughts, floods, and shifting patterns of rainfall to endanger global food production — again, a finding backed by other studies. Climate change is also cutting down on the globe’s supply of fresh drinking water, and stronger storms pose a danger to human infrastructure.

The latest report is a product of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), an international project aimed at providing the world a kind of grand summary and assessment of the known science on climate change. It put out its last big finding — the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) — in 2007. Now the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) is rolling out in a series of stages over the next few months.

The Working Group I report was the first stage, and covered how climate change arises from the basics of physical science. It was released in September of 2013. The report proposed, for the first time, an overall “carbon budget” that humanity cannot exceed if we’re to stay under 2°C of warming — what most scientist consider the safe upper limit. In short, the world can afford to release only 1,000 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere if it wants to stay under the 2°C threshold, and 531 gigatons have already been emitted as of 2011.

Right now representatives and scientists from around the world are hold up in Yokohama, Japan, finalizing the language for the Working Group II report, which will come out on Monday. It will cover the impacts of climate change, which populations and societies are the most vulnerable, and how governments can adapt. According to the Guardian, almost 500 people must approve the Working Group II language, including 66 experts authors, 57 observers, 271 officials representing 115 countries around the world.

The IPCC’s Working Group III report is scheduled to be released in April, and will cover climate change mitigation. That will be followed by the final Synthesis Report in October. At that point, the AR5 release will be complete, setting the stage for the next big international meeting in 2015, where the world’s governments hope to develop some sort of coordinated strategy to actually tackle climate change and cut global carbon emissions.

Source: Reader Supported News